The 2025 PFL World Tournament 6: Semi-finals brings a blockbuster lightweight matchup as former UFC title challenger Kevin Lee steps into the PFL SmartCage to face reigning 2024 PFL Lightweight champion Gadzhi Rabadanov. Scheduled for Friday, the fight headlines a card packed with high-stakes semi-final bouts. 

Lee was a late replacement for the injured Jay-Jay Wilson, enters with a 20-8 record, coming off a first-round submission win over Thiago Oliveira in September 2024. 

Rabadanov, riding an 11-fight win streak, dominated Marc Diakiese via first-round TKO in April 2025. A win here propels the victor to the PFL Finals with a shot at the $500,000 prize. Historically, these fighters have never met, making this a fresh and unpredictable clash.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Rabadanov Heavy Favourite

For the latest odds and to place your bets, explore sports betting for trusted platforms offering competitive lines on this PFL semi-final.

• Kevin Lee: 4/1 (5.00) – 20% 
• Gadzhi Rabadanov: 1/7 (1.14) – 87.5% 
• Draw: 16/1 (17.00) – 5.9% 

Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change.

Tale of the Tape

Lee’s slight reach advantage and submission-heavy record highlight his grappling expertise, while Rabadanov’s higher KO/TKO rate showcases his ability to finish fights early. Both fighters are well-rounded, but Rabadanov’s recent momentum and versatility just give him an edge.

Kevin Lee News

Known as “The Motown Phenom,” Kevin Lee enters the PFL as a late alternate after Jay-Jay Wilson withdrew due to a broken jaw. Lee’s recent form has been inconsistent, with only two wins in his last five fights, including a submission victory over Thiago Oliveira in September 2024 at Lights Out Championship 17. No injury concerns have been reported, and Lee is expected to be at full strength.

His wrestling and submission skills will be critical, but he faces a tough test gutsy opponent. 

Gadzhi Rabadanov News

The 2024 PFL Lightweight champion is in peak form, boasting an 11-fight win streak that includes a devastating first-round TKO over Marc Diakiese in April 2025. His Sambo-based grappling and striking power make him a formidable force. 

Rabadanov is set to enter the contest with confidence. Key to watch is his ability to control the fight’s pace and avoid Lee’s submission attempts. Rabadanov’s camp has emphasized his readiness to defend his title aspirations.

For fans looking to bet on this lightweight semi-final, here are three suggested bets from top UFC matches betting sites, offering solid value based on fighter performances and trends.

Fight to End in Round 1 (KO/TKO or Submission): Rabadanov’s recent first-round finishes and Lee’s ability to secure quick submissions suggest this fight may not go the distance. (Forecast odds: 6/5)

Rabadanov to Win by Decision: Rabadanov’s grappling control and ability to dominate positional exchanges make a decision victory likely if he avoids Lee’s submissions. (Forecast odds: 11/10)

Under 2.5 Rounds: Given both fighters’ finishing rates (65% for Lee, 60% for Rabadanov), this bout is likely to end early, making this a strong pick for UFC betting tips. (Forecast odds: 4/5)

For those seeking higher returns, these value bets from sites for betting on UFC matches offer attractive odds.

Kevin Lee to Win by Submission: Lee’s 40% submission rate and wrestling pedigree make this an upset not so far fetched, especially if he capitalizes on Rabadanov’s occasional defensive lapses. (Forecast odds: 5/1)

Fight to End by Submission: Both fighters have strong grappling credentials, with Lee’s submission-heavy record and Rabadanov’s Sambo background increasing the likelihood of a tap-out. (Forecast odds: 3/1)

Lee to Win in Round 2: If Lee weathers an early storm, his experience could lead to a second-round finish via submission or ground-and-pound. (Forecast odds: 81/10) 

Prediction: Rabadanov by Decision

The reigning champion is poised to continue his dominance. Rabadanov’s 11-fight win streak, bolstered by his Sambo-based grappling and recent knockout power, makes him a formidable favourite. Lee, is a skilled wrestler and has a submission threat, but he has struggled with consistency and faces a steep challenge as an alternate.

Expect Rabadanov to control the fight with superior grappling and pace, likely securing a unanimous decision victory to advance to the PFL Finals. If you're backing Rabadanov or looking to bet the upset, check out our top-rated sportsbook welcome bonusto maximize your value before placing a wager.